Saturday, 19 March 2011

EPL Season 2010/2011 : *Probability* Calculation

A Simple Probability Calculation. There can be different probabilities, this is just my view.

Chelsea has played 28 matches so far getting 51 points
Arsenal has played 29 matches so far getting 58 points
United has played 30 matches so far getting 63 points

Chelsea has 30 points for grabs...
United has 24 points for grabs...
Arsenal has 27 points for grabs...

Chelsea is 12 points behind United...
Chelsea is 7 points behind Arsenal...
Arsenal is 5 points behind United...

Manchester United is yet to play : WestHam, Fulham, Everton, Arsenal, Chelsea, Blackburn, Blackpool & Newcastle
Arsenal is yet to play : Blackburn, Blackpool, Liverpool, Spurs, Bolton, Man Utd, Stoke, Aston Villa & Fulham
Chelsea is yet to play : Man City, Stoke, Wigan, WestBrom, Birmingham, West Ham, Spurs, Man Utd, Newcastle & Everton

Assumption :

If United loses to Chelsea & Arsenal they lose 6 points out of 24 which is available for grabs...
*Note : they could lose more points, especially in the clashes against Blackpool & Everton.
If Arsenal loses 1 match (probably against Liverpool or Bolton) & draws 1 match (probably against Spurs or Blackpool) out of their available 9, they lose 5 points out of 27 which is available for grabs...
*Note : they could lose more points especially if they lose against both Liverpool and Bolton or draw against both Spurs and Blackpool)
If Chelsea wins all their remaining matches, Chelsea will grab all 30 points available...
*Note : Matches against Man City, Spurs, Man Utd & Everton are crucial, if we lose points without Arsenal & Man United losing then retaining the title will be hard. 

Therefore...

United will end up  with 63 + 18 = 81 points
Arsenal will end up with 58 + 22 = 80 points
Chelsea will end up with 51 + 30 = 81 points

Current Goal Difference Rate

United after 30 matches = +34
Arsenal after 29 matches = +30
Chelsea after 28 matches = +27

So goal difference may decide the Champion this season, Thus, Chelsea should start scoring now.

- Ash Di Spontaneus
The Chelsea Analyst
http://chelseaanalyst.blogspot.com/2011/03/epl-season-20102011-probability.html

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